The New Trade Map

Services export growth continues to outpace merchandise trade by a significant and widening margin. The WTO forecasts global service exports to grow 4.8% in 2026, against merchandise growth of 1.9%.

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Commercial services trade volume export growth,
baseline forecast, 2023–2027

Source: IMF, 2026a

Trade surge: AI goods, digital services and intangibles

AI-related goods now represent 15% of global trade by volume, but drove 43% of its growth in the first half of 2025. Trade in AI goods expanded 20% in H1 2025, against less than 4% for non-AI goods.

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75% of the world’s semiconductor production capacity is located in Taiwan, South Korea, mainland China and Japan. The US controls IP and design. Alternative hubs are emerging - Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam now account for nearly 30% of global semiconductor export growth.

The rapid growth of exports in services is a structural shift in the global economy. Digitally delivered exports such as cloud computing, online finance, and remote professional services, are growing fastest of all, projected at 5.6% in 2026.

Intangibles such as intellectual property, data, branding, design and embedded software, make up a growing share of the most valuable cross-border data flows. Intangible ivestment has grown 143% since 1995, against just 32% for tangible investment. The gap is not closing.

AI Goods Trade Impact

Source: WTO, 2025

The Forces Shaping the New Trade Map

Three structural forces - industrial policy, capital and energy - have outsized influence over the transformation of trade. Understanding these forces is as important as understanding the trends they are shaping.

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Global FDI fell 11% in 2024 - the second consecutive year of double-digit contraction. Interest rates and inflation remain high, exacerbated by the Iran conflict. The bright spot: technology. Investment in the digital economy doubled in value in 2024, driven by data centres, semiconductors and ICT services.

The global AI buildout is driving a surge in power demand current grid capacity cannot meet, which is stalling global investment. In the US, data centres could account for nearly half of total electricity demand growth in coming years.

The U.S.'s export blacklist, China's export controls on critical minerals, Made in Europe and Make in India. Major economies are using subsidies, localisation requirements, export controls and national security carve-outs to gain the upper hand.

The $2.5 trillion problem

The global trade finance gap stands at $2.5 trillion - a record set in 2024. That figure represents 10% of all merchandise. Despite stabilising, it has not closed. The gap is highly complex, structural, persistent and unequally distributed. Technology may offer solutions to finally close it.

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The trade finance gap falls hardest on those who need it most. Asian Development Bank estimates that nearly half of all SME trade finance requests are rejected by banks, against a rejection rate of just 7% for multinational corporations. India and Africa face the largest shortfalls relative to trade volumes.

AI is improving credit assessment for smaller exporters. Tokenisation is enabling trade assets such as invoices and receivables to be digitised. Early deployments are producing results. Yet scaling these tools remains the central challenge.

DMCC Commodity Trade Index 2026

Tariffs, industrial policy and new corridors are reshaping which hubs lead. See where the world's top ten trading economies rank in 2026.

EXPLORE THE INDEX

Prioritise service provisions in every negotiation

Services trade provisions, on data flows and digital market access, must carry the same weight as tariff schedules.

Accelerate legal equivalence for digital trade documents

Give digital trade documents the same legal status as paper equivalents across jurisdictions. Regulatory divergence here is one of the most direct brakes on the digitalisation of trade finance.

Deploy blended finance to close access gaps

Work with development banks to deploy blended finance instruments that reduce the risk premium on trade finance in underserved markets.

Build semiconductor supply chain risk into policy frameworks

The dominance of AI goods in merchandise trade growth exposes economies to the escalation of export controls and to the geopolitical contest over chip production capacity.

Prioritise frameworks with high-growth demographic markets

Trade and investment agreements with Asia, Africa and Latin America must reflect their growing strategic importance. Ceding first-mover advantage in these markets is a long-term cost of competitiveness.

Audit trade portfolios for services exposure

Assess what share of revenue is coming from services and digitally delivered offerings. The gap with merchandise is widening. Businesses that have not made this assessment are already operating with an incomplete picture.

Map AI supply chain risk at every tier

Identify where AI-related components sit in your supply chains and develop contingency sourcing arrangements. Export control volatility in chips is a live, evolving risk.

Benchmark your trade finance arrangements

Digital platforms now offer faster credit decisions and lower documentation burden than traditional correspondent banking. Businesses on legacy processes are accepting avoidable costs.

Factor infrastructure depth into location decisions

Energy availability, grid reliability, digital connectivity and logistics network quality are now primary considerations in trade infrastructure planning.

What's being traded, who's trading it, and how it's financed are changing faster than at any point in history

Trade growth: resilient but fragile

Energy and Asia: The Primary Downside Risk

The Dealmakers: New FTAs

Services export growth continues to outpace merchandise trade by a significant and widening margin. The WTO forecasts global service exports to grow 4.8% in 2026, against merchandise growth of 1.9%.

Commercial services trade volume export growth,
baseline forecast, 2023–2027

Trade surge: AI goods, digital services and intangibles

AI concentration vulnerability

Structural services shift