the future of trade

China and India dominate tea production, accounting for roughly two-thirds of global output. Recently, climate irregularities like extreme heat and floods have disrupted tea production in India, highlighting the fragility of concentrated supply chains. 

On the demand side, global spending on tea reached $282 billion in 2024, demonstrating strong market appetite. Consumer preferences are increasingly tilting toward premium, organic offerings valued for health benefits such as boosting immunity or aiding sleep.

Climate change is reshaping the tea production landscape, with rising temperatures and erratic rainfall curbing yields in India and Kenya. In response, producers are responding with drought-resistant clones and shifting plantations to higher altitudes.

Nine million smallholder farmers also face precarious economic conditions, with rising fertiliser and energy costs, limited access to credit, and exposure to climate shocks, squeezing margins. Yet existing digital tools that assist in price discovery and provide weather alerts are boosting productivity and compliance.

Across the tea value chain, power dynamics are lopsided, favouring processors, distributors and global retailers, while smallholder farmers remain fragmented and vulnerable. 

Demand is shifting in key markets. China's rising middle class is driving consumption, while India's growing appetite for specialty teas is diverting volumes away from export markets.

Dubai has a strategic advantage as a commodity hub for the tea trade. Sitting between Asian producers and European consumers, Dubai boasts strong infrastructure, regulatory certainty and trade platforms to intermediate tea products. 

Long anchored in tradition, the tea industry is set to enter a period of technological and market disruption. Satellite and spectral imaging are optimising fertiliser use and labour efficiency on farms, while biotechnology research focuses on developing drought- and pest-resistant clones to counter shrinking growing areas. Factors such as climate change, shifting consumer tastes and cost pressures are forcing producers and investors to rethink both how tea is grown and how it is sold.