the future of trade

West Africa leads the world in cocoa production, accounting for over 60% of global cocoa production. However, poor weather and disease have devastated plantations and impacted supply chains. Prices for cocoa beans nearly tripled in 2024, and remain stubbornly high. 

While confectionery accounts for the largest share of cocoa bean demand, growth is increasingly driven by cocoa’s diversification into adjacent industries such as cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals and functional “better-for-you” snacking foods.

West Africa’s cocoa sector is under acute strain from climate change, disease, ageing trees and chronic underinvestment. Farmers face fixed farmgate prices that limit reinvestment and fuel smuggling, while record-high global prices drive shrinkflation and reformulation among major brands. Meanwhile, new EU rules on deforestation-free sourcing are set to reshape the industry and favour companies that can credibly prove ethical and sustainable practices.

The cocoa value chain remains complex and often weighted toward downstream actors in Europe. However, production is no longer solely reliant on West Africa. Ecuador’s output has surged by more than 80% over the past decade, cementing its role as Latin America’s largest exporter of processed and semi-processed cocoa. Peru is carving out a niche in fine-flavour cocoa, while Brazil is scaling up grinding capacity. These shifts point to a more diversified and resilient global supply base that can unlock new value, spread risk, and create opportunities for innovation.

While Europe and the United States remain the dominant cocoa players, Dubai is gaining ground as a dynamic hub. Its strategic location and advanced logistics connect producing and consuming regions with speed and flexibility, while warehousing, blending and financing capabilities add resilience when markets tighten. Rising imports of both beans and finished products highlight the UAE’s growing role as a stabiliser and emerging growth engine in the global cocoa trade.

Innovation is reshaping the cocoa trade from farm to shelf. Digital payments, fintech and blockchain traceability are shifting power closer to farmers while ensuring compliance with tightening sustainability rules. At the frontier, lab-grown cocoa and cocoa-free alternatives promise resilience against climate shocks and volatile prices, while on the demand side, premiumisation is opening new high-value niches for single-origin and artisanal products.