China has, in recent years, driven near 30% of global growth. But now, with President Xi Jinping’s policies to restrain the domestic technology and property sector, a slowing Chinese economy could significantly influence regional and economic growth worldwide. This is likely to have a knock-on effect on financial markets and supply chains in the coming years.
The price of oil is likely to remain high in the light of current geopolitical developments. Experts have predicted that the resetting of oil prices back to the “normal” level would be disruptive and an unlikely outcome in 2022 and beyond. Download this year’s Future of Trade 2022 report to explore the key drivers behind the oil pivot that could define the geopolitical landscape.
RTA's have emerged between countries and entities in different regions and continents (for example, the EU-Mexico or the US-Israel trade relationships).
New-generation RTA's increasingly cover trade in goods and relevant regulatory areas, including trade in services, cross-border investment, competition policy, intellectual property rights, and environment and development cooperation.
Large RTA's that cover a large share of global trade can potentially have harmful effects on non-members, leading to net trade diversion rather than net trade creation
With increasing numbers of countries being members of several RTA's simultaneously, this could create competing and possibly antagonistic blocs that would erode multilateralism. Overlapping membership could also pose significant administrative burdens for small countries with limited capacity to negotiate and weak institutional memory.
Building supply chain resilience requires companies to build a more localised supply chain to manage risk. With the pandemic now coming under control, will supply chains ever return to ‘normal’?
The Future of Trade 2022 report discusses several factors spanning the political, financial, and economic realms and how they are likely to shape supply chains in the future.