GLOBAL TRADE TARIFFS
19.7%
Almost 20% of global merchandise imports are now subject to tariffs or similar measures.
ACCELERATING AI
43%
AI-related goods are just 15% of global trade volume, but drove 43% of merchandise trade growth in H1 2025.
TRANSITION GAP
$102 BILLION
The gap between investment in fossil fuels and sustainable energy sources grew to $102 billion in 2025.
SOUTH-SOUTH TRADE
35%
South-South trade now accounts for 35% of global flows, outpacing North-North trade - and rising.
The Architecture of Global Trade is Being Rebuilt Through Rupture
The Future of Trade 2026 is the sixth edition of DMCC's biennial flagship report on the changing nature of global commerce.
As the old architecture gives way, the 2026 edition is defined by rupture and what comes next in global trade.
The Four Forces Shaping the Future of Global Trade
The AI Shift
AI has transitioned from experimentation to operational reality but the bigger shift is ahead.
Forecasts predict that by 2028, 33% of enterprise software applications will include agentic AI, up from less than 1% in 2024, and that at least 15% of work decisions will be made by AI agents.
Tariff Disruptions
Trump's second term and the decline of the WTO have replaced rules-based trade with bilateral deals, bloc-based arrangements and permanent uncertainty.
Businesses should expect escalation as the default for trade policy.
Supply Chains Rebuilt
Supply chains are in a permanent state of stress-testing.
The Iran conflict, geopolitical fractures and critical mineral bottlenecks have made diversification a continuous operational discipline. Businesses have moved from "China + 1" to "China + many".
The Energy Race
The energy transition has been reframed from a climate imperative to a race for industrial supremacy.
Those controlling clean tech inputs, manufacturing capacity and grid infrastructure will determine the terms of this new industrial race.
The certainties that underpinned global trade are gone. What takes their place will define the decade ahead
Explore the Chapters
A World Trade Disorder
The rules-based trading system that governed global commerce is no longer the primary frame of reference for businesses making decisions about where to source, invest and sell.
What do businesses do when the rulebook disappears? Chapter 1 explores the forces that dismantled world trade and what businesses and governments must now operate within.
Top 5 actions businesses are taking in response to geopolitical risk
Source: DMCC Future of Trade Survey, 2026
% of respondents selecting each option
of businesses cite geopolitical tensions as a major or moderate factor reshaping trade flows over the next 1-3 years.
The New Trade Map
Geopolitical ruptures have not stopped trade, but have fundamentally redirected it. The WTO forecasts merchandise export growth of 1.9% in 2026, recovering to 2.6% in 2027, but strip out AI-related goods, and the underlying picture is considerably weaker. The real story is not the headline number but where growth is happening and why.
Chapter 2 maps the new trade flows, identifies which hubs are capturing redirected volumes, and presents the latest DMCC Commodity Trade Index to reveal where the genuine opportunity lies.
Trade volume growth, 2022–2027
Source: IMF, 2026a
15%
of global trade by volume but drove 43% of its growth in the first half of 2025.
The Technology Divide
The gap between the most and least digitalised sectors is wide. Digital infrastructure leads at the top of the DMCC Industry Digitalisation Index 2026. Production sits at the bottom, though accelerating AI and cloud adoption drove its biggest single-year improvement on record.
Chapter 3 quantifies the divide through the DMCC Industry Digitalisation Index, and examines the financial infrastructure and data barriers reshaping trade alongside it.
DMCC Industry Digitalisation Index by component, 2026 vs 2024
Source: Eurostat, OECD Cebr analysis
$1.92 TRILLION
in the first half of 2025, up more than 20% year-on-year.
The Race for Industrial Supremacy
The energy transition has been reframed. What began as a climate imperative is now a race for industrial supremacy, fought over clean tech inputs, EV factories, grid infrastructure and critical minerals supply chains. Low-carbon energy investment hit a record $2.3 trillion globally in 2025, up 8%, and is projected to reach $2.9 trillion over the next five years.
Chapter 4 examines who is winning that contest, who is losing, and what it means for trade.
Total mineral demand for clean energy technologies, 2010-2040
Source: IEA, 2021b
1) CHINA: $800 BILLION
2) EU: $455 BILLION
3) UNITED STATES: $378 BILLION
Top 5 actions businesses are taking in response to geopolitical risk
Source: DMCC Future of Trade Survey, 2026
% of respondents selecting each option
Trade volume growth, 2022–2027
Source: IMF, 2026a
DMCC Industry Digitalisation Index by component, 2026 vs 2024
Source: Eurostat, OECD Cebr analysis
Total mineral demand for clean energy technologies, 2010-2040
Source: IEA, 2021b
DMCC 2026 Commodity Trade and Industry Digitalisation Indexes
DMCC Commodity Trade Index 2026
Tariffs, conflict, and fracturing supply chains are redrawing the map of global commodity trade. The hubs that held their ground two years ago are not necessarily the ones holding it now.
For the first time, the DMCC Commodity Trade Index 2026 uses nowcasting data to evaluate the impact of real-time disruptions, including the Strait of Hormuz closure and escalating global tariffs, ranking the world's ten most significant commodity trade hubs across location, commodity endowment, and institutional strength to reveal who is gaining, who is slipping, and why it matters.
First, second and biggest mover: the United States, the UAE and the Netherlands lead the Index Score 2026 rankings
| Country | Index Score 2026 |
|---|---|
| United States | 57% |
| United Arab Emirates | 47% |
| Netherlands | 47% |
| Switzerland | 44% |
| Hong Kong SAR, China | 43% |
AI adoption varies significantly across industries. The pattern is consistent whether in Europe or the United States
Source: Eurostat, OECD, Cebr analysis
Industry Digitalisation Index
The DMCC Industry Digitalisation Index 2026 tracks digitalisation progress across sectors and four core business functions. The variation across industries is striking. The sectors furthest behind are among the largest employers in the global economy.
Expert Perspectives on Global Trade
“Something like 80% of global trade is carried by sea, and any threats to freedom of navigation can have a massive range of second, third order impacts from rising insurance premiums, rising commodity prices, disruption to energy, food commodity flows.”
Chief Asia Geopolitical Strategist, Deutsche Bank
“The level of trust that characterised global trade between 1980 and sometime into the new millennium is not, in general, going to prevail. So every country, regardless of which alliance they are part of, and whether they are part of multiple alliances, would prefer to err on the side of a 'just in case' approach.”
Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India
“If you're a bank and you want to tokenise your deposits because it enables faster settlement, it can reduce your operations cost. You don't care what the price of Bitcoin is. You don't care where the broader market cap is, you're just focused on creating efficiencies for your business.”
Director of Crypto Research and Strategy, Charles Schwab
“We'll see the Saudis build even more infrastructure to avoid the Strait. And Iraq will build more infrastructure. The UAE will build more infrastructure. Everyone will start building more infrastructure to move things away from the Strait, which means that trade flows will start to change again.”
Head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk, Kpler
Slideshare
View the 2026 report's key findings in the executive summary.
2026 Future of Trade Report
Your in-depth view into the transformative forces behind global trade.