The Future of Trade

Global Trade Will Grow by 8% in 2021

Fears that trade would drop 13 to 32% last year were not realised. While COVID-19 was the direct cause for a steep decline in 2020, global trade is defying predictions and driving the post-pandemic economic recovery. The World Trade Organization forecasts that global trade will increase by 8% in 2021.

Tech Will Transform Supply Chains

While COVID-19 has been an accelerator of digital transformation in supply chains, l, the adoption of new technologies has been uneven and focused on the “last mile”. From our findings, technology adoption in ports and shipping continues is set to accelerate.

CBAM Set to Become a Key Polarising Issue for Global Trade Markets

While emerging climate mechanisms such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), or “Carbon pricing”, may seem like a game-changer for global climate policy, this will likely lead to severe distortions in the international trading system.

WTO and WHO Will Forge a Closer Alliance

The WTO, under new leadership, collaboration with the WHO will be key to managing trade tensions and intellectual property issues. Meanwhile, the WTO will have to respond to increased regionalism and growing digitalisation.

Blockchain & Cryptocurrencies Will Restore Trust in Trade Finance

Blockchain and cryptocurrencies are starting to address major challenges in international trade related to trust, efficiency, and access to trade finance. Since 2021, the total value locked into DeFi has tripled from approximately USD 20bn to USD 60bn. As digital infrastructures grow, they will continue to accelerate a shift in trade from the national to the global.

Download our report for a closer look at how blockchain can reshape trade finance.

E-Commerce Boom Will Continue After COVID-19

The 2020 report identified COVID-19 as an ‘accelerator’ of key trends in trade, including technology adoption. In particular, the boom in e-commerce, driven by lockdowns and consumer preference for ‘contactless’ and cross-border shopping – has driven several trends.

Explore the key trading technology trends in 2021 and beyond.

Infrastructure Investment Gap is Expected to Reach $15 Trillion by 2040

The need for trade finance is estimated between $2-5 trillion globally, with approximately half of the gap in Asia and Africa; The gap could widen further as supply chains move to lower-income economies.

The US and China Relationship is Key

The relationship between the US and China will be central to shaping global trade in the years ahead. The Biden administration’s China strategy - competition, confrontation and compromise – is yet to play out. While the tone of the debate has become more civilised, there remains a clear risk of escalating tensions and further decoupling – as evidenced in the tech and semiconductor sector.