GLOBAL TRADE TARIFFS
19.7%
Almost 20% of global merchandise imports are now subject to tariffs or similar measures.
ACCELERATING AI
43%
AI-related goods are just 15% of global trade volume, but drove 43% of merchandise trade growth in H1 2025.
TRANSITION GAP
$102 BILLION
The gap between investment in fossil fuels and sustainable energy sources grew to $102 billion in 2025.
SOUTH-SOUTH TRADE
35%
South-South trade now accounts for 35% of global flows, outpacing North-North trade - and rising.
The Architecture of Global Trade is Being Rebuilt Through Rupture
The Future of Trade 2026 is the sixth edition of DMCC's biennial flagship report on the changing nature of global commerce.
As the old architecture gives way, the 2026 edition is defined by rupture and what comes next in global trade.
The Four Forces Shaping the Future of Global Trade
The AI Shift
AI has transitioned from experimentation to operational reality but the bigger shift is ahead.
Forecasts predict that by 2028, 33% of enterprise software applications will include agentic AI, up from less than 1% in 2024, and that at least 15% of work decisions will be made by AI agents.
Tariff Disruptions
Trump's second term and the decline of the WTO have replaced rules-based trade with bilateral deals, bloc-based arrangements and permanent uncertainty.
Businesses should expect escalation as the default for trade policy.
Supply Chains Rebuilt
Supply chains are in a permanent state of stress-testing.
The Iran conflict, geopolitical fractures and critical mineral bottlenecks have made diversification a continuous operational discipline. Businesses have moved from "China + 1" to "China + many".
The Energy Race
The energy transition has been reframed from a climate imperative to a race for industrial supremacy.
Those controlling clean tech inputs, manufacturing capacity and grid infrastructure will determine the terms of this new industrial race.